So much for moral victories! States to Semis!

Sound the Vuvuzela, as the buzzing will continue for American soccer in the face of everything improbable. The States needed to win by three and have Brazil win by three, which is stupid enough before you consider that the Amerks have looked nothing shy of crap for the first two games of group play in the Confederations Cup.

Leaving my house for men's league's pitch at 3:30 p.m., I planned to write the somewhat moral victory post around, well, now. The US was up 1-0 at half, and Brazil was demoralizing Italy by a 3-0 score. Yet texts began to roll into our team during the game, and as we topped our opponents, 3-0, the United States did the same.

I'm watching it now, knowing what's coming, and I'm buzzing. As previously posted, Charlie Davies' first goal, digging deep in the six and wresting a ball off of Egypt's keeper, was the sort of goals the States have to score, blue collar and no bull----.

The next two goals were also things the US needed. Seeing Michael Bradley rewarded for a stellar tournament despite nothing from his fellow midfielders is fantastic, and, yes, full marks for PK Lando on a wonderful low-pass. As much as I can't stand Bob Bradley lately, the look on his face when his son put in No. 2 was downright stars and stripes. It was Michael Bradley's second-straight goal on Father's Day, with his father behind the lines.

The third and final tally was needed, too, as Fulham's Clint Dempsey had been anything but stellar in the first two contests before turning it on the first half. His strong heading finish of a Jonathan Spector cross sent the Yanks into ecstasy, and they held on for an unlikely trip to the semi-finals to meet Spain.

How unlikely is this? Borderline impossible... and it comes on a day I actually scored in our team's game, which truly shows you how the stars were aligned.

Full marks to Brad Guzan for the clean sheet, but this was without Tim Howard and Carlos "Charlie Blackmouth" Bocanegra.

This is a fine day for US soccer, a day that no one can take away from us, regardless of what happens against Spain in Wednesday afternoon's Stage Two. We'll be at a bar. If you're near Buffalo, come find us (or just email).

And it wouldn't be fun if we didn't ask Giuseppe Rossi how he feels about the whole thing.

Bland Finale? Report forthcoming...

Charlie Davies' hustle goal emblematic of what this team has needed up-top all tourney, while PK Lando's silly-in-a-bad-way pass on a 1v1 with the Egypt keeper is just the opposite. I'll be DVRing the second half due to a Baker's City FC/Hamburg FC match at Ellicott Creek Park, so a full report will come in the evening. States lead 1-0 after 25 minutes, with a guarantee of significant stoppage time, as Egyptian keeper el Hadary shakes off a head injury suffered on the US goal.

USA v Italy News and Notes

I wasn't able to watch this game live due to golf obligations, but catching up on DVR I've got a few observations.

1) Giuessepe Rossi took a ball from 30 yards out and the only thing on his mind was how can I score? I'm dying for Bradley and Altidore to figure that out inside the box in the first half. Just let it rip boys. It's a 2-nil game before the red card is an issue.

2) The straight red card issued to Ricardo Clark was a bit much, but reading the letter of the law can be considered "A player is sent off and shown the red card if he is guilty of serious foul play." OK, I see it. It was a dumb tackle inside midfield where Gennaro Gattuso posed no immediate threat. Clark came high with his right foot and really got a hold of the Italian middie. I don't agree with it, but I get it. Now i hate to nitpick, but the FIFA rules also read: "A player is sent off and shown the red card if he is guilty of violent conduct." Moments after Clark's sending off Landon Donovan was elbowed in the jaw by Fabio Grosso. Grosso picked up a cautioning and I know it was nowhere near what Daniele De Rossi threw at Brian McBride's head in 2006, but it's a two-way street and if the game's going to be called that close..... Just saying.

3) Speaking of refereeing decisions, the way the Brazil-Egypt clash ended and with the Egyptian Football Federation filing an appeal, it makes me wonder: Whether the ref had video assistance and communication from his 4th or not, your player merely had to do his job and hug the post on a corner kick. Instead he drifted to the middle and ended up throwing his arm at a ball heading into the net. I hate to lose too, but if you're going to lose, lose with class. If you're going to appeal your loss on a technicality, well, shame on you.

4) Does anybody know what happened to Jon O'Brien? After Claudio Reyna retired O'Brien was supposed to be our midfield general. He was supposed to be the guy through the 2010 run that was supposed to calm the US down, slow the game down, get creative in the attacking third and engineer the attack from the defensive end. The injuries that cut his career short are nothing short of heartbreaking to myself.

5) The US-Italy thing got off track right quick. One more thought before bed. In the US' starting eleven two players (Benny Feilhaber and Jozy Altidore) either can't get off the bench of receive few minutes for their club teams. Coming off the bench, Brad Guzan, DaMarcus Beasley, and Freddy Adu don't see any playing time at all. Heath Pearce was demoted from regular starter to his side's reserve squad. Point being: It's hard to go toe-to-toe with the world's best when key players on the roster aren't in either mid-season MLS or post-season Europe form. It's impressive to sign a contract in Europe. Bravo. Make it work though. Going up against two of the best in Italy and Brazil (whose players all play regularly in their domestic league or internationally) when they're in game shape and you're not is a major disadvantage.

Confederations Cup preview

(Note: All games of the tournament will be available live in HD on ESPN or ESPN2 thanks to the timing of the contests. The U.S. games are :

(Monday, June 15 vs. Italy, 2:25 p.m. EST -- ESPN)
(Thursday, June 18 vs. Brazil, 10 a.m. EST -- ESPN2)
(Sunday, June 21 vs. Egypt, 2;25 p.m. EST -- ESPN2)

You're all welcome at my house for the first and third games. HD and everything.

On to the preview...

It's not exactly a group of death, but it shouldn't be a ton of fun for the United States in the Confederations Cup in South Africa.

The Confederations Cup draw consists of the winners of each of FIFA's six confederations tournaments, together with the previous World Cup winner and the host country.

One group is, let's say, remarkably easier than the other, as World Cup winner Spain gets to take on Iraq, South Africa and New Zealand. For what their worth, the FIFA World Rankings place the world's No.1 team against its 72, 77 and 82 (SA, Iraq, NZ).

Compare that combined number of 272 to 63, the combined rankings of Group B, with No. 14 United States competing against Italy (4), Brazil (5) and Egypt (40).

Italy is atop Group 8 of UEFA with 14 points. Two draws are the only smudges on their record, and both came against their toughest opponents, Northern Ireland and Bulgaria (There is no word whether Bulgarian captain -- can you believe that? -- Dimitar Berbatov actually tried in the contest).

The reigning champions, Brazil sits atop CONMEBOL, but it hasn't been with traditional dominance or flair. At 7-6-1, two of their draws have come at Peru and home to Bolivia. Brazil is 11-1-1 all-time against the States, 6-2-5 against Italy and 4-0 versus Egypt.

The Egyptians are at the bottom of CAF's third group, but have only played two games, drawing at home to Zambia and dropping a 3-1 decision at Algeria. With Zaki, most recently of Wigan, and Mohammad Zidan (Borussia Dortmund) up-top, they could give fits to at least two of the group, but more on that when we talk U.S. chances.

It would be shocking if anyone other than Spain came out of Group A. Writing this after Iraq and South Africa played to a scoreless draw in the first game of the tournament, it is clear that the guffaws regarding Iraq being in this tournament are well-earned. South Africa will be the Spaniards greatest threat in terms of offense, but Fernando Torres and company should be able to wreak havoc on the South African back four... though we cshouldn't count out home-field advantage (I guess).

While the New Zealand did have a successful last friendly, in a sense, losing to Italy 4-3, they do not pose a significant threat to Spain. I was going to risk my "Streak for the Cash" on Sunday's Spain/NZ match producing three goals or less, but I was more confident that the Pirates could top the Tigers in MLB (as if that should mean anything to anyone).

As for the States' chances, "our" best chance would be to score first against Italy, or keep the game scoreless for as long as possible. You'd think America could top Egypt, but the Yanks have had more than their fair share of issues with top-class forwards, and I'd put Zaki down for at least one in their match. If that one comes early, look out.

Oddly enough, I like the U.S. more than usual against Brazil, if the midfield can play patient enough to take advantage of a sometimes overly-active yellow and green team.

How the States can make it to the semi-finals:
Best-case-realistic scenario: Monday's opener with Italy produces a scoreless or 1-1 draw as relentless wing play limits Italy offensively. The 2006 World Cup draw likely won't happen, as the States salvaged a point thanks to a Cristian Zaccardo own goal. You may remember that as the only goal the Azzurri surrendered in the tournament until the final against France. The U.S. would then beat Egypt and hope Brazil beats the Italians. Of course the same scenario could work in reverse, but seems less likely.

Worst-case for the States:
Italy strikes first against the States, and then uses their potent counter-attack to seal the game. Giuseppe Rossi scores both goals and does the "crying" celebration right to the ESPN cameras. Off a shocking draw with Egypt, Brazil goes all-out offensively, swarming the States in a 4-2 decision. Finally, Egypt uses Zaki and company to torture the shaky-at-best States backline en route to another two-goal win.

Predictions:

Group A (June 14, 17, 20):
South Africa v Iraq ** Already completed, D, 0-0
New Zealand v Spain (Spain, 3-0)
Spain v Iraq (Spain, 5-0)
South Africa v New Zealand (South Africa, 2-1)
Iraq v New Zealand (Draw, 1-1)
Spain v South Africa (Spain, 3-1)

Group B (June 15, 18, 21):
Brazil v Egypt (Brazil, 4-2)
USA v Italy (Draw, 1-1)
USA v Brazil (Brazil, 2-1)
Egypt v Italy (Italy, 2-0)
Italy v Brazil (Italy, 1-0)
Egypt v USA (US, 2-1)

Semi-finals (June 24 & 25):
Winner Group A v Runner-up Group B (Italy 1 v. South Africa 0)
Winner Group B v Runner-up Group A (Spain 3 v. Brazil 2)

Third-placed play-off (June 28):
Royal Bafokeng Stadium, Rustenburg (Brazil 3 v. South Africa 1)

Confederations Cup final (June 28):
Ellis Park, Johannesburg (Spain 3 v. Italy 2 (pk))