Friday, October 2, 2009

Rocktober: Do it or lose it

When my three friends and I head South to see the States tangle with Costa Rica on Oct. 14 in D.C., there's a solid chance it'll be the most important American soccer game since the 2006 World Cup.

If the States earns one point or less in Honduras on Oct. 10, they'll need another point to guarantee a berth in the World Cup, and Costa Rica have everything to play for.

Heading into that game in Honduras, a nation undergoing so much civil unrest that they've banned everything from freedom of speech to freedom to dress yourself without government superviasion, the table looks like this:

(First three qualify for WC, fourth place earns play-in game with fifth place team from CONMEBOL, who in my opinion will be Antonio Valencia's Ecuador squad).

1. US, 16 pts, +5
2. Mexico, 15 pts, +3
3. Honduras, 13 pts, +6
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4. Costa Rica, 12 pts, -4
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5. El Salvador, 8 pts, -2
6. T&T, 5 pts, -8

An extremely unlikely scenario could make it all moot for the States. If moribund Trinidad and Tobago can somehow topple Costa Rica in San Jose (the Costa Ricans beat T&T at T&T, 3-2, in their previous match-up), the States would be assured South Africa.

The Oct. 10 matchday features the two aforementioned games, plus El Salvador's trip to Azteca. In all likelyhood, CR, Honduras and Mexico come out on top, though the States chances at an upset are the best of the three visitors.

Here's how the table would look before the final match day (without goal differential):
1. Mexico, 18 pts
2. Honduras, 16 pts
3. US, 16 pts
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4. Costa Rica, 15 pts
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5. El Salvador, 8 pts
6. T&T, 5 pts

If you're a States fan hoping for qualification on the first matchday, hope for one of the following:
A) a win
2) a Costa Rican loss
D) a draw and a Costa Rican draw

Email: nicholas.mendola@gmail.com

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