Confederations Cup preview

(Note: All games of the tournament will be available live in HD on ESPN or ESPN2 thanks to the timing of the contests. The U.S. games are :

(Monday, June 15 vs. Italy, 2:25 p.m. EST -- ESPN)
(Thursday, June 18 vs. Brazil, 10 a.m. EST -- ESPN2)
(Sunday, June 21 vs. Egypt, 2;25 p.m. EST -- ESPN2)

You're all welcome at my house for the first and third games. HD and everything.

On to the preview...

It's not exactly a group of death, but it shouldn't be a ton of fun for the United States in the Confederations Cup in South Africa.

The Confederations Cup draw consists of the winners of each of FIFA's six confederations tournaments, together with the previous World Cup winner and the host country.

One group is, let's say, remarkably easier than the other, as World Cup winner Spain gets to take on Iraq, South Africa and New Zealand. For what their worth, the FIFA World Rankings place the world's No.1 team against its 72, 77 and 82 (SA, Iraq, NZ).

Compare that combined number of 272 to 63, the combined rankings of Group B, with No. 14 United States competing against Italy (4), Brazil (5) and Egypt (40).

Italy is atop Group 8 of UEFA with 14 points. Two draws are the only smudges on their record, and both came against their toughest opponents, Northern Ireland and Bulgaria (There is no word whether Bulgarian captain -- can you believe that? -- Dimitar Berbatov actually tried in the contest).

The reigning champions, Brazil sits atop CONMEBOL, but it hasn't been with traditional dominance or flair. At 7-6-1, two of their draws have come at Peru and home to Bolivia. Brazil is 11-1-1 all-time against the States, 6-2-5 against Italy and 4-0 versus Egypt.

The Egyptians are at the bottom of CAF's third group, but have only played two games, drawing at home to Zambia and dropping a 3-1 decision at Algeria. With Zaki, most recently of Wigan, and Mohammad Zidan (Borussia Dortmund) up-top, they could give fits to at least two of the group, but more on that when we talk U.S. chances.

It would be shocking if anyone other than Spain came out of Group A. Writing this after Iraq and South Africa played to a scoreless draw in the first game of the tournament, it is clear that the guffaws regarding Iraq being in this tournament are well-earned. South Africa will be the Spaniards greatest threat in terms of offense, but Fernando Torres and company should be able to wreak havoc on the South African back four... though we cshouldn't count out home-field advantage (I guess).

While the New Zealand did have a successful last friendly, in a sense, losing to Italy 4-3, they do not pose a significant threat to Spain. I was going to risk my "Streak for the Cash" on Sunday's Spain/NZ match producing three goals or less, but I was more confident that the Pirates could top the Tigers in MLB (as if that should mean anything to anyone).

As for the States' chances, "our" best chance would be to score first against Italy, or keep the game scoreless for as long as possible. You'd think America could top Egypt, but the Yanks have had more than their fair share of issues with top-class forwards, and I'd put Zaki down for at least one in their match. If that one comes early, look out.

Oddly enough, I like the U.S. more than usual against Brazil, if the midfield can play patient enough to take advantage of a sometimes overly-active yellow and green team.

How the States can make it to the semi-finals:
Best-case-realistic scenario: Monday's opener with Italy produces a scoreless or 1-1 draw as relentless wing play limits Italy offensively. The 2006 World Cup draw likely won't happen, as the States salvaged a point thanks to a Cristian Zaccardo own goal. You may remember that as the only goal the Azzurri surrendered in the tournament until the final against France. The U.S. would then beat Egypt and hope Brazil beats the Italians. Of course the same scenario could work in reverse, but seems less likely.

Worst-case for the States:
Italy strikes first against the States, and then uses their potent counter-attack to seal the game. Giuseppe Rossi scores both goals and does the "crying" celebration right to the ESPN cameras. Off a shocking draw with Egypt, Brazil goes all-out offensively, swarming the States in a 4-2 decision. Finally, Egypt uses Zaki and company to torture the shaky-at-best States backline en route to another two-goal win.

Predictions:

Group A (June 14, 17, 20):
South Africa v Iraq ** Already completed, D, 0-0
New Zealand v Spain (Spain, 3-0)
Spain v Iraq (Spain, 5-0)
South Africa v New Zealand (South Africa, 2-1)
Iraq v New Zealand (Draw, 1-1)
Spain v South Africa (Spain, 3-1)

Group B (June 15, 18, 21):
Brazil v Egypt (Brazil, 4-2)
USA v Italy (Draw, 1-1)
USA v Brazil (Brazil, 2-1)
Egypt v Italy (Italy, 2-0)
Italy v Brazil (Italy, 1-0)
Egypt v USA (US, 2-1)

Semi-finals (June 24 & 25):
Winner Group A v Runner-up Group B (Italy 1 v. South Africa 0)
Winner Group B v Runner-up Group A (Spain 3 v. Brazil 2)

Third-placed play-off (June 28):
Royal Bafokeng Stadium, Rustenburg (Brazil 3 v. South Africa 1)

Confederations Cup final (June 28):
Ellis Park, Johannesburg (Spain 3 v. Italy 2 (pk))